Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 25

Sporting Gijon–Burgos

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 February 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal El Molinón, Gijón

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'Sporting GijonL. Olaetxea (assist: Nikola Maraš)
83'Sporting GijonC. Dotor (assist: N. Serrano)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting Gijon		Burgos
9	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	3
4	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
398	Passes	431
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting Gijon 1.31 · Burgos 0.86. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Sporting Gijon 9 · Burgos 9; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

Daniel Palencia→

6.08

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.1%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Sporting Gijon, 0.81 for Burgos.
The highest double chance value is 79.4% (1X — Sporting Gijon win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,189 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting Gijon to win50.1%

Draw29.3%

Burgos to win20.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time41.2%

Level at half-time46.4%

Burgos lead at half-time12.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon ahead or level87.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Burgos ahead58.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1189 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting Gijon: at least 12Actual: 13
Burgos: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Sporting Gijon: at least 5Actual: 3
Burgos: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.31

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Burgos score0.86

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.9%1–114.4%2–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.