Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 24

Tenerife–Eldense

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 January 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz, Tenerife

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'EldenseJavi Llabrés

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tenerife		Eldense
11	Shots	5
1	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	1
4	Offsides	0
70%	Possession	30%
498	Passes	215
405	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tenerife 1.27 · Eldense 0.97. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Tenerife 11 · Eldense 5; on target 1 and 1.
Tenerife kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

Álvaro Moreno→

4.67

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “Tenerife to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Tenerife, 0.82 for Eldense.
The highest double chance value is 78.6% (1X — Tenerife win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,180 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tenerife to win48.7%

Draw29.8%

Eldense to win21.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	21

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Tenerife lead at half-time36.1%

Level at half-time47.5%

Eldense lead at half-time16.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Tenerife ahead or level83.6%

12 — not level at half-time52.5%

X2 — level or Eldense ahead63.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1180 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tenerife: at least 13Actual: 14
Eldense: at least 11Actual: 21

Corners

Tenerife: at least 4Actual: 3
Eldense: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tenerife score1.27

Attack: Tenerife score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eldense concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eldense score0.97

Attack: Eldense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tenerife's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.9%1–114.6%0–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.