Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 23

Mirandes–Malaga

3–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 20 January 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'MalagaManu Molina (assist: Dioni)
57'MirandesJ. Panichelli (penalty)
61'MirandesJ. Gorrotxategi (assist: Hugo Rincón)
71'MalagaDavid Larrubia (assist: Einar Galilea)
90+3'MirandesJ. Roca (assist: J. Panichelli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mirandes		Malaga
19	Shots	7
8	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
387	Passes	447
303	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mirandes 1.26 · Malaga 0.82. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Mirandes 19 · Malaga 7; on target 8 and 4.

Referee

Daniel Palencia→

6.27

yellows per match

0.55

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.0%: “Mirandes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Mirandes, 0.81 for Malaga.
The highest double chance value is 77.6% (1X — Mirandes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,175 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mirandes to win47.0%

Draw30.7%

Malaga to win22.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Mirandes lead at half-time28.2%

Level at half-time50.7%

Malaga lead at half-time21.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Mirandes ahead or level78.9%

12 — not level at half-time49.3%

X2 — level or Malaga ahead71.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1175 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mirandes: at least 12Actual: 14
Malaga: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Mirandes: at least 4Actual: 8
Malaga: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mirandes score1.26

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Malaga's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Malaga score0.82

Attack: Malaga score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.2%1–114.8%0–012.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.