Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 23

Almeria–Huesca

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 January 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Almeria		Huesca
23	Shots	3
8	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	8
10	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
69%	Possession	31%
591	Passes	265
512	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Almeria 1.63 · Huesca 0.84. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Almeria 23 · Huesca 3; on target 8 and 1.
Almeria kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Salvador Lax→

4.68

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.7%: “Almeria to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Almeria, 0.80 for Huesca.
The highest double chance value is 83.4% (1X — Almeria win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,174 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Almeria to win57.7%

Draw25.7%

Huesca to win16.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Almeria lead at half-time23.9%

Level at half-time46.3%

Huesca lead at half-time29.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Almeria ahead or level70.2%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or Huesca ahead76.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1174 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Almeria: at least 11Actual: 15
Huesca: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Almeria: at least 5Actual: 10
Huesca: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Almeria score1.63

Attack: Almeria score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: Huesca concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Huesca score0.84

Attack: Huesca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Almeria's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.5%1–113.0%2–012.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.