Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 23

Castellón–Cordoba

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 January 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'CastellónA. Lottin (assist: T. van den Belt)
50'CordobaÁlex Sala (penalty)
90+6'CordobaCarlos Albarrán

Match statistics

Match statistics
Castellón		Cordoba
14	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	4
4	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
390	Passes	374
297	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Castellón 1.71 · Cordoba 1.18. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Castellón 14 · Cordoba 10; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

Jon González→

4.35

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.9%: “Castellón to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for Castellón, 1.14 for Cordoba.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (1X — Castellón win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,172 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Castellón to win49.9%

Draw25.8%

Cordoba to win24.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Castellón win or draw75.8%

12 — any result other than a draw74.2%

X2 — draw or Cordoba win50.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Castellón lead at half-time43.8%

Level at half-time41.9%

Cordoba lead at half-time14.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Castellón ahead or level85.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Cordoba ahead56.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1172 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Castellón: at least 11Actual: 9
Cordoba: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

Castellón: at least 4Actual: 3
Cordoba: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 38.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Castellón score1.71

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cordoba score1.18

Attack: Cordoba score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Castellón concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.6%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1172 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 22 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.