Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 23

Zaragoza–Tenerife

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 January 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio de la Romareda, Zaragoza

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'TenerifeWaldo Rubio (assist: Y. Diarra)
69'TenerifeY. Diarra (assist: Waldo Rubio)
77'ZaragozaEnrique Clemente (assist: S. Bazdar)
78'ZaragozaIván Azón (assist: T. Moya)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zaragoza		Tenerife
10	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	8
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	7
56%	Possession	44%
489	Passes	369
364	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zaragoza 1.48 · Tenerife 0.73. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Zaragoza 10 · Tenerife 11; on target 4 and 2.
Zaragoza kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Andrés Fuentes→

5.26

yellows per match

0.34

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “Zaragoza to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Zaragoza, 0.75 for Tenerife.
The highest double chance value is 80.9% (1X — Zaragoza win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,172 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zaragoza to win51.4%

Draw29.4%

Tenerife to win19.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Zaragoza lead at half-time34.0%

Level at half-time48.9%

Tenerife lead at half-time17.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Zaragoza ahead or level83.0%

12 — not level at half-time51.1%

X2 — level or Tenerife ahead66.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1172 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zaragoza: at least 12Actual: 5
Tenerife: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Zaragoza: at least 5Actual: 5
Tenerife: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zaragoza score1.48

Attack: Zaragoza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tenerife's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tenerife score0.73

Attack: Tenerife score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Zaragoza's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.9%1–114.2%0–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.