Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 23

Racing Santander–Racing Ferrol

6–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 January 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Campos de Sport de El Sardinero, Santander

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Racing SantanderA. Martin (penalty)
36'Racing SantanderJuan Carlos Arana
42'Racing SantanderM. Sangalli
46'Racing SantanderP. Rodriguez (assist: Jon Karrikaburu)
64'Racing SantanderP. Rodriguez (assist: Javi Montero)
73'Racing SantanderJon Karrikaburu

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Santander		Racing Ferrol
18	Shots	6
10	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	1
0	Offsides	3
49%	Possession	51%
390	Passes	410
298	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Santander 1.68 · Racing Ferrol 0.80. On the pitch: 6-0.
Shots Racing Santander 18 · Racing Ferrol 6; on target 10 and 2.

Referee

Sergiu Muresan→

5.09

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.3%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for Racing Santander, 0.91 for Racing Ferrol.
The highest double chance value is 82.2% (1X — Racing Santander win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,171 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Santander to win57.3%

Draw24.9%

Racing Ferrol to win17.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Racing Santander lead at half-time42.7%

Level at half-time46.2%

Racing Ferrol lead at half-time11.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Santander ahead or level88.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Racing Ferrol ahead57.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1171 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Santander: at least 12Actual: 14
Racing Ferrol: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Racing Santander: at least 4Actual: 4
Racing Ferrol: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Santander score1.68

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Racing Ferrol's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Racing Ferrol score0.80

Attack: Racing Ferrol score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–011.5%2–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.