Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 23

FC Cartagena–Oviedo

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 17 January 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova, Cartagena

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'OviedoAlemão (assist: Oier Luengo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Cartagena		Oviedo
8	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	11
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
40%	Possession	60%
333	Passes	493
257	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Cartagena 0.86 · Oviedo 1.55. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots FC Cartagena 8 · Oviedo 16; on target 3 and 7.
Oviedo kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Marta Huerta→

5.38

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.2%: “Oviedo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.77 for FC Cartagena, 1.48 for Oviedo.
The highest double chance value is 82.1% (X2 — draw or Oviedo win).
These values were computed from 1,165 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Cartagena to win17.9%

Draw27.9%

Oviedo to win54.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	21

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

FC Cartagena lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time46.7%

Oviedo lead at half-time28.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Cartagena ahead or level71.5%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Oviedo ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1165 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Cartagena: at least 12Actual: 14
Oviedo: at least 11Actual: 21

Corners

FC Cartagena: at least 4Actual: 2
Oviedo: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Cartagena score0.86

Attack: FC Cartagena score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Oviedo's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Oviedo score1.55

Attack: Oviedo score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Cartagena concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–115.1%1–113.7%0–211.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.