Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 20

Malaga–Eldense

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 18 December 2024 at 20:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio La Rosaleda, Malaga

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'MalagaAntonio Cordero (assist: D. Sanchez)
28'MalagaNélson Monte (assist: D. Sanchez)
42'EldenseIván Martos · red card
90+3'MalagaKevin Villodres

Match statistics

Match statistics
Malaga		Eldense
22	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	2
4	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
476	Passes	278
422	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Malaga 1.14 · Eldense 0.96. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Malaga 22 · Eldense 15; on target 6 and 4.
Malaga kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Rafael Sánchez→

4.13

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “Malaga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Malaga, 0.90 for Eldense.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (1X — Malaga win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,136 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Malaga to win42.5%

Draw31.4%

Eldense to win26.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Malaga lead at half-time35.2%

Level at half-time47.9%

Eldense lead at half-time16.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Malaga ahead or level83.1%

12 — not level at half-time52.1%

X2 — level or Eldense ahead64.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1136 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Malaga: at least 12Actual: 10
Eldense: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Malaga: at least 4Actual: 3
Eldense: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Malaga score1.14

Attack: Malaga score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eldense's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eldense score0.96

Attack: Eldense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Malaga's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–014.1%0–011.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.