Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 42

Mirandes–Amorebieta

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 June 2024 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'MirandesG. Martinez (assist: C. Martin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mirandes		Amorebieta
10	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	0
5	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
342	Passes	478
255	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mirandes 1.46 · Amorebieta 0.79. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Mirandes 10 · Amorebieta 11; on target 3 and 2.
Amorebieta kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Manuel Orellana→

5.52

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.4%: “Mirandes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Mirandes, 1.09 for Amorebieta.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (1X — Mirandes win or draw).
These values were computed from 916 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mirandes to win46.4%

Draw27.6%

Amorebieta to win26.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	16

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Mirandes win or draw73.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.4%

X2 — draw or Amorebieta win53.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Mirandes lead at half-time28.1%

Level at half-time50.3%

Amorebieta lead at half-time21.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Mirandes ahead or level78.4%

12 — not level at half-time49.7%

X2 — level or Amorebieta ahead71.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 916 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mirandes: at least 10Actual: 11
Amorebieta: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Mirandes: at least 4
Amorebieta: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 36.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mirandes score1.46

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amorebieta concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amorebieta score0.79

Attack: Amorebieta score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–010.3%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 916 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 41 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.