Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 42

Leganes–Elche

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 June 2024 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'LeganesMiguel de la Fuente
45+5'LeganesJuan Cruz (assist: S. Cisse)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Leganes		Elche
7	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	1
4	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
33%	Possession	67%
317	Passes	650
245	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Leganes 1.26 · Elche 0.77. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Leganes 7 · Elche 9; on target 5 and 1.
Elche kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Luis Milla→

6.02

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.5%: “Leganes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Leganes, 0.71 for Elche.
The highest double chance value is 83.9% (1X — Leganes win or draw).
These values were computed from 916 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Leganes to win56.5%

Draw27.4%

Elche to win16.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Leganes win or draw83.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.6%

X2 — draw or Elche win43.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.4%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Leganes lead at half-time29.4%

Level at half-time50.7%

Elche lead at half-time19.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Leganes ahead or level80.1%

12 — not level at half-time49.3%

X2 — level or Elche ahead70.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 916 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Leganes: at least 13Actual: 8
Elche: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Leganes: at least 4Actual: 2
Elche: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals38.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 501 of 1,358 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 36.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Leganes score1.26

Attack: Leganes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Elche's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Elche score0.77

Attack: Elche score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Leganes concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.0%1–113.3%2–012.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 916 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 41 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.