Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 42

FC Andorra–Racing Ferrol

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 June 2024 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadi Nacional, Andorra la Vella

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

82'FC AndorraA. Scheidler (assist: J. Lobete)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Andorra		Racing Ferrol
10	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	2
3	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
494	Passes	329
418	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Andorra 1.22 · Racing Ferrol 0.96. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Andorra 10 · Racing Ferrol 10; on target 3 and 2.
FC Andorra kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Raúl González→

3.85

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.8%: “FC Andorra to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for FC Andorra, 1.09 for Racing Ferrol.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (1X — FC Andorra win or draw).
These values were computed from 913 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Andorra to win49.8%

Draw26.4%

Racing Ferrol to win23.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	9

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Andorra win or draw76.2%

12 — any result other than a draw73.6%

X2 — draw or Racing Ferrol win50.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Andorra lead at half-time26.4%

Level at half-time52.9%

Racing Ferrol lead at half-time20.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Andorra ahead or level79.4%

12 — not level at half-time47.1%

X2 — level or Racing Ferrol ahead73.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 913 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Andorra: at least 11Actual: 13
Racing Ferrol: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

FC Andorra: at least 4Actual: 3
Racing Ferrol: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 36.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Andorra score1.22

Attack: FC Andorra score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Ferrol's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Racing Ferrol score0.96

Attack: Racing Ferrol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Andorra's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.5%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 913 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 41 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.