Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 42

Alcorcon–Burgos

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 June 2024 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Santo Domingo, Alcorcón

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'AlcorconDyego Sousa (assist: Fede Vico)
74'BurgosÁlex Sancris (assist: Curro Sánchez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Alcorcon		Burgos
12	Shots	20
5	Shots on target	9
9	Shots inside the box	9
8	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
396	Passes	591
317	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Alcorcon 1.09 · Burgos 1.06. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Alcorcon 12 · Burgos 20; on target 5 and 9.
Burgos kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Miguel González→

4.35

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.2%: “Burgos to win”. Second comes “Alcorcon to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Alcorcon, 1.41 for Burgos.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 913 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Alcorcon to win34.1%

Draw27.6%

Burgos to win38.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	3

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Alcorcon win or draw61.8%

12 — any result other than a draw72.4%

X2 — draw or Burgos win65.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Alcorcon lead at half-time29.5%

Level at half-time50.6%

Burgos lead at half-time19.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Alcorcon ahead or level80.1%

12 — not level at half-time49.4%

X2 — level or Burgos ahead70.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 913 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Alcorcon: at least 12Actual: 11
Burgos: at least 9Actual: 3

Corners

Alcorcon: at least 4Actual: 2
Burgos: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 36.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Alcorcon score1.09

Attack: Alcorcon score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Burgos score1.06

Attack: Burgos score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alcorcon's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.3%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 913 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 41 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.