Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 41

Burgos–Tenerife

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 May 2024 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, Burgos

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'TenerifeEnric Gallego (penalty)
86'BurgosJ. Mellot (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Burgos		Tenerife
13	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
65%	Possession	35%
526	Passes	289
453	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Burgos 1.17 · Tenerife 0.90. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Burgos 13 · Tenerife 9; on target 5 and 3.
Burgos kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Iván Caparrós→

5.41

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.0%: “Burgos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Burgos, 0.89 for Tenerife.
The highest double chance value is 79.5% (1X — Burgos win or draw).
These values were computed from 902 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Burgos to win52.0%

Draw27.6%

Tenerife to win20.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	29

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Burgos win or draw79.5%

12 — any result other than a draw72.4%

X2 — draw or Tenerife win48.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Burgos lead at half-time26.0%

Level at half-time50.9%

Tenerife lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Burgos ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time49.1%

X2 — level or Tenerife ahead74.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 902 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Burgos: at least 10Actual: 9
Tenerife: at least 12Actual: 29

Corners

Burgos: at least 4Actual: 4
Tenerife: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals43.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,152 of 2,735 predictions were correct (42.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 35.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Burgos score1.17

Attack: Burgos score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tenerife's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tenerife score0.90

Attack: Tenerife score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–013.0%2–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 902 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 82 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.