Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 41

Amorebieta–Espanyol

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 May 2024 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2, Lezama

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Amorebieta		Espanyol
10	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	2
6	Offsides	4
36%	Possession	64%
284	Passes	521
200	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Amorebieta 0.93 · Espanyol 1.23. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Amorebieta 10 · Espanyol 11; on target 3 and 3.
Espanyol kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Dámaso Arcediano→

4.44

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “Espanyol to win”. Second comes “Amorebieta to win” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Amorebieta, 1.42 for Espanyol.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 902 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Amorebieta to win29.0%

Draw28.3%

Espanyol to win42.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Amorebieta win or draw57.3%

12 — any result other than a draw71.7%

X2 — draw or Espanyol win71.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Amorebieta lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time47.9%

Espanyol lead at half-time22.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Amorebieta ahead or level78.0%

12 — not level at half-time52.1%

X2 — level or Espanyol ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 902 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Amorebieta: at least 12Actual: 11
Espanyol: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Amorebieta: at least 4Actual: 4
Espanyol: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 35.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Amorebieta score0.93

Attack: Amorebieta score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Espanyol's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Espanyol score1.23

Attack: Espanyol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amorebieta concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%0–110.1%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 902 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 40 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.