Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 41

Levante–Alcorcon

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 May 2024 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

60'LevanteA. Garcia (assist: Pablo Martínez)
65'LevanteCarlos Espí
79'AlcorconVíctor García (assist: Javi Lara)
90+3'AlcorconDyego Sousa (assist: Víctor García)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levante		Alcorcon
16	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
12	Corners	6
1	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
520	Passes	331
445	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levante 1.54 · Alcorcon 0.63. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Levante 16 · Alcorcon 20; on target 4 and 6.
Levante kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Rafael Sánchez→

4.49

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “Levante to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for Levante, 1.08 for Alcorcon.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (1X — Levante win or draw).
These values were computed from 902 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levante to win51.4%

Draw25.9%

Alcorcon to win22.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Levante lead at half-time42.2%

Level at half-time47.9%

Alcorcon lead at half-time10.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Levante ahead or level90.0%

12 — not level at half-time52.1%

X2 — level or Alcorcon ahead57.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 902 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levante: at least 12Actual: 10
Alcorcon: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Levante: at least 5Actual: 12
Alcorcon: at least 2Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levante score1.54

Attack: Levante score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alcorcon's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alcorcon score0.63

Attack: Alcorcon score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levante's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.7%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.