Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 40

Villarreal II–Albacete

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Monday, 20 May 2024 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Villarreal IIJavi Ontiveros (penalty)
26'AlbaceteCristian Glauder (assist: Fidel)
28'AlbaceteJuanma García (assist: Alberto Quiles)
55'Villarreal IIJavi Ontiveros (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Villarreal II		Albacete
25	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	7
14	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
439	Passes	395
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Villarreal II 1.26 · Albacete 1.18. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Villarreal II 25 · Albacete 8; on target 6 and 7.

Referee

Jon González→

4.62

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.2%: “Albacete to win”. Second comes “Villarreal II to win” at 35.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Villarreal II, 1.50 for Albacete.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 900 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Villarreal II to win35.2%

Draw26.6%

Albacete to win38.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Villarreal II lead at half-time31.7%

Level at half-time47.8%

Albacete lead at half-time20.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Villarreal II ahead or level79.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.2%

X2 — level or Albacete ahead68.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 900 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Villarreal II: at least 11Actual: 19
Albacete: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Villarreal II: at least 5Actual: 8
Albacete: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Villarreal II score1.26

Attack: Villarreal II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Albacete's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Albacete score1.18

Attack: Albacete score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Villarreal II concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–29.4%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.