Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 40

Alcorcon–Valladolid

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 May 2024 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Santo Domingo, Alcorcón

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'AlcorconFede Vico (assist: E. Addai)
66'ValladolidÁlvaro Negredo (assist: V. A. Meseguer Cavas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Alcorcon		Valladolid
16	Shots	16
9	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	9
4	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
39%	Possession	61%
268	Passes	409
188	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Alcorcon 0.71 · Valladolid 1.21. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Alcorcon 16 · Valladolid 16; on target 9 and 5.
Valladolid kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Raúl González→

3.82

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “Valladolid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.96 for Alcorcon, 1.15 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (X2 — draw or Valladolid win).
These values were computed from 898 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Alcorcon to win29.2%

Draw31.7%

Valladolid to win39.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Alcorcon lead at half-time19.2%

Level at half-time53.1%

Valladolid lead at half-time27.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Alcorcon ahead or level72.3%

12 — not level at half-time46.9%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead80.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 898 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Alcorcon: at least 13Actual: 14
Valladolid: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Alcorcon: at least 3Actual: 4
Valladolid: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Alcorcon score0.71

Attack: Alcorcon score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Valladolid concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score1.21

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alcorcon's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–113.2%0–011.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.