Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 39

Racing Ferrol–Alcorcon

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 May 2024 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de A Malata, Ferrol

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'AlcorconChema · red card
63'Racing FerrolJosep Señé (assist: Héber Pena)
82'AlcorconJavi Pérez (assist: Fede Vico)
86'Racing FerrolN. Serrano

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Ferrol		Alcorcon
20	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
495	Passes	284
421	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Ferrol 1.44 · Alcorcon 0.65. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Racing Ferrol 20 · Alcorcon 12; on target 7 and 3.
Racing Ferrol kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Germán Cid→

4.05

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “Racing Ferrol to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Racing Ferrol, 0.85 for Alcorcon.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (1X — Racing Ferrol win or draw).
These values were computed from 882 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Ferrol to win44.5%

Draw31.1%

Alcorcon to win24.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Racing Ferrol lead at half-time31.3%

Level at half-time51.2%

Alcorcon lead at half-time17.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Ferrol ahead or level82.5%

12 — not level at half-time48.8%

X2 — level or Alcorcon ahead68.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 882 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Ferrol: at least 11Actual: 16
Alcorcon: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Racing Ferrol: at least 5Actual: 5
Alcorcon: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Ferrol score1.44

Attack: Racing Ferrol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alcorcon's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alcorcon score0.65

Attack: Alcorcon score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Racing Ferrol's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–014.7%0–012.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.