Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 38

Eibar–Amorebieta

5–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 May 2024 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'EibarStoichkov
45+3'EibarA. Aketxe (penalty)
49'EibarJosé Corpas (assist: Stoichkov)
79'EibarJon Bautista (assist: K. de La Fuente)
82'EibarK. de La Fuente (assist: Ander Madariaga)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eibar		Amorebieta
20	Shots	19
14	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	17
3	Goalkeeper saves	9
4	Corners	8
3	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
507	Passes	441
416	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eibar 1.91 · Amorebieta 0.54. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Eibar 20 · Amorebieta 19; on target 14 and 3.

Referee

Rubén Ávalos→

4.84

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.4%: “Eibar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.05 for Eibar, 0.71 for Amorebieta.
The highest double chance value is 89.6% (1X — Eibar win or draw).
These values were computed from 874 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eibar to win69.4%

Draw20.2%

Amorebieta to win10.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Eibar win or draw89.6%

12 — any result other than a draw79.8%

X2 — draw or Amorebieta win30.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.2%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Eibar lead at half-time42.7%

Level at half-time45.0%

Amorebieta lead at half-time12.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Eibar ahead or level87.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Amorebieta ahead57.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 874 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eibar: at least 10Actual: 6
Amorebieta: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Eibar: at least 5Actual: 4
Amorebieta: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 35.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eibar score1.91

Attack: Eibar score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Amorebieta concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amorebieta score0.54

Attack: Amorebieta score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eibar's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.8%1–012.4%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 874 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 37 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.