Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 38

FC Cartagena–Alcorcon

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 May 2024 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova, Cartagena

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'FC CartagenaJ. Izquierdo (assist: Luis Muñoz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Cartagena		Alcorcon
11	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
0	Corners	7
1	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
332	Passes	385
243	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Cartagena 1.31 · Alcorcon 0.70. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Cartagena 11 · Alcorcon 12; on target 4 and 1.

Referee

Alejandro Quintero→

5.45

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.2%: “FC Cartagena to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for FC Cartagena, 0.80 for Alcorcon.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (1X — FC Cartagena win or draw).
These values were computed from 873 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Cartagena to win44.2%

Draw32.1%

Alcorcon to win23.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Cartagena lead at half-time28.8%

Level at half-time51.8%

Alcorcon lead at half-time19.3%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Cartagena ahead or level80.7%

12 — not level at half-time48.2%

X2 — level or Alcorcon ahead71.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 873 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Cartagena: at least 11Actual: 10
Alcorcon: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

FC Cartagena: at least 5
Alcorcon: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Cartagena score1.31

Attack: FC Cartagena score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alcorcon's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alcorcon score0.70

Attack: Alcorcon score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Cartagena's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.70 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.8%1–115.1%0–013.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.