Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 38

Villarreal II–Levante

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 3 May 2024 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'LevanteÁlex Muñoz
38'LevanteR. Brugue (assist: Sergio Lozano)
52'LevanteD. Gomez (assist: A. Garcia)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Villarreal II		Levante
18	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
408	Passes	507
325	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Villarreal II 1.26 · Levante 1.08. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Villarreal II 18 · Levante 12; on target 3 and 5.
Levante kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

José López→

5.24

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Villarreal II to win”. Second comes “Levante to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Villarreal II, 1.40 for Levante.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 869 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Villarreal II to win39.5%

Draw26.6%

Levante to win33.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Villarreal II lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time49.6%

Levante lead at half-time25.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Villarreal II ahead or level75.0%

12 — not level at half-time50.4%

X2 — level or Levante ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 869 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Villarreal II: at least 11Actual: 11
Levante: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Villarreal II: at least 4Actual: 9
Levante: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Villarreal II score1.26

Attack: Villarreal II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levante's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levante score1.08

Attack: Levante score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Villarreal II concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–19.5%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.