Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 37

Alcorcon–Eldense

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 April 2024 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Santo Domingo, Alcorcón

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Alcorcon		Eldense
12	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	1
2	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
401	Passes	299
313	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Alcorcon 1.09 · Eldense 1.01. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Alcorcon 12 · Eldense 8; on target 4 and 1.
Alcorcon kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Daniel Trujillo→

3.74

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.0%: “Alcorcon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Alcorcon, 0.91 for Eldense.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (1X — Alcorcon win or draw).
These values were computed from 863 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Alcorcon to win40.0%

Draw32.0%

Eldense to win27.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Alcorcon lead at half-time28.9%

Level at half-time49.6%

Eldense lead at half-time21.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Alcorcon ahead or level78.4%

12 — not level at half-time50.4%

X2 — level or Eldense ahead71.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 863 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Alcorcon: at least 11Actual: 11
Eldense: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Alcorcon: at least 4Actual: 3
Eldense: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Alcorcon score1.09

Attack: Alcorcon score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eldense's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eldense score1.01

Attack: Eldense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alcorcon concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–013.9%0–012.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.