Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 36

Eibar–Alcorcon

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 April 2024 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+2'EibarJon Bautista (assist: A. Tejero)
54'AlcorconIago López · red card
89'EibarJosé Corpas (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eibar		Alcorcon
16	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
71%	Possession	29%
653	Passes	255
569	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eibar 1.83 · Alcorcon 0.53. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Eibar 16 · Alcorcon 14; on target 5 and 3.
Eibar kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

José Guzmán→

5.26

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.4%: “Eibar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for Eibar, 0.62 for Alcorcon.
The highest double chance value is 89.1% (1X — Eibar win or draw).
These values were computed from 854 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eibar to win66.4%

Draw22.7%

Alcorcon to win10.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Eibar win or draw89.1%

12 — any result other than a draw77.3%

X2 — draw or Alcorcon win33.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Eibar lead at half-time43.6%

Level at half-time46.1%

Alcorcon lead at half-time10.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Eibar ahead or level89.7%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Alcorcon ahead56.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 854 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eibar: at least 10Actual: 14
Alcorcon: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Eibar: at least 6Actual: 5
Alcorcon: at least 2Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals44.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,152 of 2,735 predictions were correct (42.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 35.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eibar score1.83

Attack: Eibar score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Alcorcon concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alcorcon score0.53

Attack: Alcorcon score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eibar's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.4%2–014.9%1–111.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 854 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 35 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.