Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 36

Villarreal II–Racing Ferrol

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 April 2024 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

76'Villarreal IIÁlex Forés (assist: Javi Ontiveros)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Villarreal II		Racing Ferrol
12	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
420	Passes	498
322	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Villarreal II 1.20 · Racing Ferrol 1.14. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Villarreal II 12 · Racing Ferrol 15; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

Luis Milla→

6.10

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.5%: “Villarreal II to win”. Second comes “Racing Ferrol to win” at 33.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.21 for Villarreal II, 1.15 for Racing Ferrol.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 849 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Villarreal II to win36.5%

Draw30.0%

Racing Ferrol to win33.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Villarreal II lead at half-time39.0%

Level at half-time45.9%

Racing Ferrol lead at half-time15.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Villarreal II ahead or level84.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Racing Ferrol ahead61.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 849 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Villarreal II: at least 12Actual: 14
Racing Ferrol: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Villarreal II: at least 4Actual: 3
Racing Ferrol: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Villarreal II score1.20

Attack: Villarreal II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Ferrol's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Racing Ferrol score1.14

Attack: Racing Ferrol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Villarreal II concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–010.5%0–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.