Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 35

Alcorcon–Villarreal II

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 15 April 2024 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Santo Domingo, Alcorcón

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'AlcorconChiki (assist: Juanma Bravo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Alcorcon		Villarreal II
7	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	4
2	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
317	Passes	437
220	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Alcorcon 1.32 · Villarreal II 0.94. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Alcorcon 7 · Villarreal II 20; on target 3 and 4.
Villarreal II kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Rafael Sánchez→

4.58

yellows per match

0.34

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Alcorcon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Alcorcon, 1.01 for Villarreal II.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (1X — Alcorcon win or draw).
These values were computed from 846 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Alcorcon to win40.7%

Draw30.5%

Villarreal II to win28.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Alcorcon win or draw71.2%

12 — any result other than a draw69.5%

X2 — draw or Villarreal II win59.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Alcorcon lead at half-time29.7%

Level at half-time48.9%

Villarreal II lead at half-time21.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Alcorcon ahead or level78.7%

12 — not level at half-time51.1%

X2 — level or Villarreal II ahead70.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 846 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Alcorcon: at least 13Actual: 12
Villarreal II: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Alcorcon: at least 4Actual: 2
Villarreal II: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals39.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 501 of 1,358 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 35.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Alcorcon score1.32

Attack: Alcorcon score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Villarreal II concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Villarreal II score0.94

Attack: Villarreal II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alcorcon concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–012.3%0–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 846 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 34 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.