Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 35

Levante–Amorebieta

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 April 2024 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

65'LevantePablo Martínez (assist: Brugui)
68'AmorebietaEneko Jauregi (assist: Erik Morán)
89'AmorebietaIker Unzueta (assist: Daniel Lasure)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levante		Amorebieta
25	Shots	9
9	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	8
5	Corners	0
3	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
541	Passes	514
460	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levante 1.63 · Amorebieta 0.61. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Levante 25 · Amorebieta 9; on target 9 and 3.

Referee

Germán Cid→

4.24

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.3%: “Levante to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Levante, 0.77 for Amorebieta.
The highest double chance value is 83.5% (1X — Levante win or draw).
These values were computed from 839 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levante to win57.3%

Draw26.2%

Amorebieta to win16.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Levante win or draw83.5%

12 — any result other than a draw73.8%

X2 — draw or Amorebieta win42.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Levante lead at half-time43.4%

Level at half-time44.9%

Amorebieta lead at half-time11.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Levante ahead or level88.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Amorebieta ahead56.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 839 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levante: at least 13Actual: 7
Amorebieta: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Levante: at least 5
Amorebieta: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals42.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,152 of 2,735 predictions were correct (42.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 35.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levante score1.63

Attack: Levante score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amorebieta concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amorebieta score0.61

Attack: Amorebieta score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levante's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.3%1–113.1%2–012.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 839 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 34 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.