Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 34

FC Cartagena–Valladolid

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 April 2024 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova, Cartagena

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'ValladolidV. A. Meseguer Cavas
37'ValladolidC. Tarrega (assist: Monchu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Cartagena		Valladolid
15	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	0
2	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
517	Passes	342
423	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Cartagena 0.98 · Valladolid 1.06. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots FC Cartagena 15 · Valladolid 6; on target 3 and 5.
FC Cartagena kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Raúl González→

3.97

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Valladolid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.91 for FC Cartagena, 1.16 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (X2 — draw or Valladolid win).
These values were computed from 834 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Cartagena to win27.4%

Draw31.8%

Valladolid to win40.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

FC Cartagena lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time50.0%

Valladolid lead at half-time23.0%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Cartagena ahead or level77.0%

12 — not level at half-time50.0%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 834 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Cartagena: at least 12Actual: 9
Valladolid: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

FC Cartagena: at least 4
Valladolid: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Cartagena score0.98

Attack: FC Cartagena score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valladolid concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score1.06

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Cartagena's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%0–113.9%0–012.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.