Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 33

Oviedo–Villarreal II

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 31 March 2024 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'OviedoAlemão (assist: Santi Cazorla)
41'Villarreal IIJavi Ontiveros (penalty)
45+1'OviedoAlemão (assist: Viti)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oviedo		Villarreal II
11	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	8
3	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
455	Passes	432
369	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oviedo 1.86 · Villarreal II 0.60. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Oviedo 11 · Villarreal II 13; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

Daniel Trujillo→

3.68

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.6%: “Oviedo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.04 for Oviedo, 0.85 for Villarreal II.
The highest double chance value is 86.8% (1X — Oviedo win or draw).
These values were computed from 824 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oviedo to win65.6%

Draw21.3%

Villarreal II to win13.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

20	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Oviedo lead at half-time30.8%

Level at half-time49.8%

Villarreal II lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Oviedo ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time50.2%

X2 — level or Villarreal II ahead69.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 824 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oviedo: at least 11Actual: 20
Villarreal II: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Oviedo: at least 6Actual: 5
Villarreal II: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oviedo score1.86

Attack: Oviedo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Villarreal II concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Villarreal II score0.60

Attack: Villarreal II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oviedo's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.9%2–110.9%1–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.