Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 32

Racing Santander–Eldense

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 March 2024 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Campos de Sport de El Sardinero, Santander

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Racing SantanderPeque Fernández
71'Racing SantanderR. Baturina (assist: J. Mboula)
90+3'EldenseJ. Ortuno (assist: Marc Mateu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Santander		Eldense
16	Shots	17
10	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	8
11	Corners	6
1	Offsides	4
52%	Possession	48%
381	Passes	339
287	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Santander 1.59 · Eldense 0.95. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Racing Santander 16 · Eldense 17; on target 10 and 6.

Referee

Luis Milla→

6.00

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.3%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Racing Santander, 0.97 for Eldense.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (1X — Racing Santander win or draw).
These values were computed from 812 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Santander to win49.3%

Draw27.8%

Eldense to win22.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Racing Santander lead at half-time46.3%

Level at half-time40.3%

Eldense lead at half-time13.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Santander ahead or level86.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Eldense ahead53.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 812 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Santander: at least 11Actual: 15
Eldense: at least 15Actual: 17

Corners

Racing Santander: at least 5Actual: 11
Eldense: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Santander score1.59

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Eldense's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eldense score0.95

Attack: Eldense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–012.0%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.