Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 31

Racing Ferrol–Valladolid

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 March 2024 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de A Malata, Ferrol

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Racing FerrolN. Serrano (assist: D. Castro)
62'Racing FerrolI. Losada (assist: N. Serrano)
83'ValladolidC. Tarrega · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Ferrol		Valladolid
17	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
388	Passes	367
292	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Ferrol 1.13 · Valladolid 1.03. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Racing Ferrol 17 · Valladolid 7; on target 6 and 1.

Referee

Luis Milla→

6.05

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Valladolid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.99 for Racing Ferrol, 1.12 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 69.4% (X2 — draw or Valladolid win).
These values were computed from 799 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Ferrol to win30.6%

Draw31.7%

Valladolid to win37.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Racing Ferrol lead at half-time27.3%

Level at half-time49.6%

Valladolid lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Ferrol ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time50.4%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead72.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 799 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Ferrol: at least 12Actual: 20
Valladolid: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Racing Ferrol: at least 4Actual: 8
Valladolid: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Ferrol score1.13

Attack: Racing Ferrol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valladolid concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score1.03

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Ferrol's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%0–112.8%0–011.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.