Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 29

Zaragoza–Amorebieta

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 March 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio de la Romareda, Zaragoza

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 14%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90+7'AmorebietaJon Morcillo

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zaragoza		Amorebieta
8	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	1
4	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
515	Passes	325
409	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zaragoza 1.54 · Amorebieta 0.52. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Zaragoza 8 · Amorebieta 7; on target 4 and 3.
Zaragoza kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Luis Milla→

6.11

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.8%: “Zaragoza to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Zaragoza, 0.63 for Amorebieta.
The highest double chance value is 85.9% (1X — Zaragoza win or draw).
These values were computed from 777 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zaragoza to win58.8%

Draw27.1%

Amorebieta to win14.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 88 of 227 predictions were correct (38.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Zaragoza win or draw85.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.9%

X2 — draw or Amorebieta win41.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Zaragoza lead at half-time44.5%

Level at half-time45.8%

Amorebieta lead at half-time9.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Zaragoza ahead or level90.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Amorebieta ahead55.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 777 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zaragoza: at least 11Actual: 15
Amorebieta: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Zaragoza: at least 5Actual: 4
Amorebieta: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals35.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 501 of 1,358 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 35.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zaragoza score1.54

Attack: Zaragoza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amorebieta concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amorebieta score0.52

Attack: Amorebieta score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Zaragoza concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–017.5%2–013.9%1–112.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 777 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 28 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.