Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 29

FC Andorra–Valladolid

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 March 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadi Nacional, Andorra la Vella

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'ValladolidF. Boyomo (assist: A. Ndiaye)
81'FC AndorraA. Pastor (assist: Sergio Molina)
90'FC AndorraA. Scheidler (assist: Jandro Orellana)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Andorra		Valladolid
15	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	7
3	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
474	Passes	402
382	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Andorra 1.09 · Valladolid 1.00. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC Andorra 15 · Valladolid 10; on target 6 and 2.

Referee

Raúl González→

4.00

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 34.6%: “Valladolid to win”. Second comes “FC Andorra to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for FC Andorra, 1.09 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 68.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 775 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Andorra to win33.9%

Draw31.5%

Valladolid to win34.6%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 1,976 of 6,366 predictions were correct (31.0%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

FC Andorra lead at half-time19.0%

Level at half-time52.6%

Valladolid lead at half-time28.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Andorra ahead or level71.5%

12 — not level at half-time47.4%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead81.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 775 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Andorra: at least 11Actual: 13
Valladolid: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

FC Andorra: at least 4Actual: 8
Valladolid: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Andorra score1.09

Attack: FC Andorra score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valladolid concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score1.00

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Andorra's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%0–111.7%1–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.