Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 28

FC Cartagena–Elche

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 February 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova, Cartagena

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'ElcheN. Castro (assist: N. Fernández)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Cartagena		Elche
5	Shots	25
3	Shots on target	6
2	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	13
3	Offsides	1
36%	Possession	64%
277	Passes	477
205	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Cartagena 1.03 · Elche 1.12. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots FC Cartagena 5 · Elche 25; on target 3 and 6.
Elche kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Daniel Trujillo→

3.82

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.3%: “Elche to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.86 for FC Cartagena, 1.20 for Elche.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (X2 — draw or Elche win).
These values were computed from 766 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Cartagena to win25.1%

Draw31.6%

Elche to win43.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Cartagena lead at half-time25.5%

Level at half-time51.2%

Elche lead at half-time23.3%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Cartagena ahead or level76.7%

12 — not level at half-time48.8%

X2 — level or Elche ahead74.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 766 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Cartagena: at least 13Actual: 9
Elche: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

FC Cartagena: at least 4Actual: 4
Elche: at least 4Actual: 13

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Cartagena score1.03

Attack: FC Cartagena score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Elche concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Elche score1.12

Attack: Elche score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Cartagena's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%0–114.7%0–012.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.