Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 28

Villarreal II–Zaragoza

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 February 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Villarreal II		Zaragoza
13	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	6
2	Offsides	4
42%	Possession	58%
347	Passes	464
259	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Villarreal II 1.11 · Zaragoza 1.05. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Villarreal II 13 · Zaragoza 7; on target 3 and 1.
Zaragoza kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Raúl González→

4.03

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 34.3%: “Villarreal II to win”. Second comes “Zaragoza to win” at 34.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Villarreal II, 1.09 for Zaragoza.
The highest double chance value is 68.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 761 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Villarreal II to win34.3%

Draw31.3%

Zaragoza to win34.3%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 1,976 of 6,366 predictions were correct (31.0%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Villarreal II win or draw65.7%

12 — any result other than a draw68.7%

X2 — draw or Zaragoza win65.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (31.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Villarreal II lead at half-time22.7%

Level at half-time49.7%

Zaragoza lead at half-time27.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Villarreal II ahead or level72.3%

12 — not level at half-time50.3%

X2 — level or Zaragoza ahead77.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 761 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Villarreal II: at least 11Actual: 15
Zaragoza: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Villarreal II: at least 4Actual: 3
Zaragoza: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals37.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 501 of 1,358 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 35.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Villarreal II score1.11

Attack: Villarreal II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zaragoza concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zaragoza score1.05

Attack: Zaragoza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Villarreal II concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–011.5%0–111.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 761 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 69 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.