Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 23

Albacete–Alcorcon

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 January 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Carlos Belmonte, Albacete

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 11%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

89'AlcorconDyego Sousa (assist: Xavier Quintilla)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Albacete		Alcorcon
16	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
65%	Possession	35%
495	Passes	270
418	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Albacete 2.09 · Alcorcon 0.62. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Albacete 16 · Alcorcon 15; on target 2 and 3.
Albacete kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Iván Caparrós→

5.47

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.4%: “Albacete to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.89 for Albacete, 0.69 for Alcorcon.
The highest double chance value is 88.5% (1X — Albacete win or draw).
These values were computed from 704 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Albacete to win66.4%

Draw22.1%

Alcorcon to win11.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

19	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Albacete lead at half-time29.1%

Level at half-time47.9%

Alcorcon lead at half-time22.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Albacete ahead or level77.1%

12 — not level at half-time52.1%

X2 — level or Alcorcon ahead70.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 704 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Albacete: at least 12Actual: 19
Alcorcon: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Albacete: at least 5Actual: 3
Alcorcon: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Albacete score2.09

Attack: Albacete score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Alcorcon concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.09 goals.

How many goals Alcorcon score0.62

Attack: Alcorcon score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Albacete's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.1%1–013.8%1–111.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.