Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 22

Burgos–Valladolid

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 January 2024 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, Burgos

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'BurgosAnder Martín (assist: Curro Sánchez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Burgos		Valladolid
7	Shots	20
2	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	9
2	Offsides	1
31%	Possession	69%
265	Passes	552
166	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Burgos 1.20 · Valladolid 1.03. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Burgos 7 · Valladolid 20; on target 2 and 2.
Valladolid kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

José López→

5.25

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.9%: “Valladolid to win”. Second comes “Burgos to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for Burgos, 1.10 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 68.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 698 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Burgos to win32.4%

Draw31.8%

Valladolid to win35.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

5	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Burgos win or draw64.1%

12 — any result other than a draw68.2%

X2 — draw or Valladolid win67.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (31.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Burgos lead at half-time30.3%

Level at half-time48.6%

Valladolid lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Burgos ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time51.4%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead69.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 698 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Burgos: at least 12Actual: 13
Valladolid: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Burgos: at least 4Actual: 5
Valladolid: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals35.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 501 of 1,358 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 35.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Burgos score1.20

Attack: Burgos score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valladolid's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score1.03

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%0–112.3%0–011.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 698 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 21 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.