UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1

Slavia Praha–Lens

2–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 10 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 39%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'Slavia PrahaM. Konečný · red card
51'Slavia PrahaD. Šturm (assist: S. Isife)
73'LensA. Sima
88'Slavia PrahaD. Šturm
90+1'LensF. Thauvin (assist: Mezian Mesloub)
90+3'LensR. Aguilar

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slavia Praha		Lens
18	Shots	26
5	Shots on target	8
11	Shots inside the box	14
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	9
1	Offsides	0
37%	Possession	63%
264	Passes	441
190	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slavia Praha 1.56 · Lens 1.47. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Slavia Praha 18 · Lens 26; on target 5 and 8.
Lens kept the ball more (63%).

Announced lineup

Slavia Praha

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: J. Trpišovský

Starting XI

J. Markovičgoalkeeper
Š. Chaloupekdefender
D. Zimadefender
T. Vlčekdefender
O. Kubiakmidfielder
M. Sadílekmidfielder
W. Nowakmidfielder
S. Isifemidfielder
D. Šturmmidfielder
E. Ayaosimidfielder
M. Chytilforward

Substitutes

Adam Rezek
D. Barcot

Unavailable players

Slavia Praha

A. N'Guessanout · injury
A. Ouandaout · injury
D. Mosesout · injury
I. Ogbuout · Achilles Tendon Injury
L. Provodout · Ankle Injury
M. Suleimanout · Health problems
O. Kolarout · Off the roster
T. Holesout · Health problems
D. Zimadoubtful · Concussion

Lens

I. Jourdrenout · Off the roster
J. Chavezout · Thigh Injury
M. Diarraout · Off the roster
M. Nawrockiout · injury
Mezian Mesloub

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “Lens to win”. Second comes “Slavia Praha to win” at 37.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Slavia Praha, 1.52 for Lens.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,398 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slavia Praha to win37.3%

Draw23.6%

Lens to win39.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Lens

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: D. Toppmöller

Starting XI

R. Rissergoalkeeper
S. Sagnandefender
I. Ganioudefender
K. Antoniodefender
M. Udolmidfielder
A. Haidaramidfielder
A. Bulatovićmidfielder
M. Skóraśmidfielder
A. Simamidfielder
F. Thauvinmidfielder
F. Ivanovićforward

Substitutes

F. Sotoca
J. Gradit
J. Kadile
J. Todibo
M. Cuisance
M. Gorgelin
Mezian Mesloub
N. Celik
O. Edouard
R. Aguilar
R. Gurtner
T. Hazard

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Thursday, 10 September 2026 at 19:14.

out · Off the roster

S. Abdulhamidout · Contusion

S. Baidooout · Knee Injury

Y. Titraouiout · injury

M. Udoldoubtful · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Slavia Praha win or draw60.9%

12 — any result other than a draw76.4%

X2 — draw or Lens win62.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.6%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.4%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slavia Praha score1.56

Attack: Slavia Praha score 74% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lens's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lens score1.47

Attack: Lens score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Slavia Praha concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%1–28.5%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2398 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 143 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.