Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 42

Sporting Gijon–Ponferradina

1–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 May 2023 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal El Molinón, Gijón

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 22%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'PonferradinaL. Miguel (own goal)
55'Sporting GijonJ. Otero (assist: Cote)
57'PonferradinaNaim García (assist: K. Nwakali)
70'PonferradinaYuri (assist: Naim García)
82'PonferradinaAdrián Castellano (assist: K. Nwakali)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting Gijon		Ponferradina
20	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	1
3	Offsides	4
59%	Possession	41%
493	Passes	344
443	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting Gijon 1.48 · Ponferradina 0.68. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Sporting Gijon 20 · Ponferradina 6; on target 4 and 5.
Sporting Gijon kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Rafael Sánchez→

4.90

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.5%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Sporting Gijon, 1.01 for Ponferradina.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (1X — Sporting Gijon win or draw).
These values were computed from 460 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting Gijon to win51.5%

Draw26.5%

Ponferradina to win22.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time45.6%

Level at half-time44.8%

Ponferradina lead at half-time9.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon ahead or level90.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Ponferradina ahead54.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 460 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting Gijon: at least 12Actual: 12
Ponferradina: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Sporting Gijon: at least 5Actual: 4
Ponferradina: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.48

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ponferradina concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ponferradina score0.68

Attack: Ponferradina score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–010.9%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.