Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 42

Malaga–Ibiza

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 May 2023 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio La Rosaleda, Malaga

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'MalagaA. Appiah (assist: Luis Muñoz)
90'IbizaJuan Fernández

Match statistics

Match statistics
Malaga		Ibiza
9	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	2
3	Offsides	3
58%	Possession	42%
515	Passes	371
433	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Malaga 1.58 · Ibiza 0.60. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Malaga 9 · Ibiza 7; on target 2 and 3.
Malaga kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Álvaro Moreno→

5.38

yellows per match

0.52

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.4%: “Malaga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for Malaga, 0.82 for Ibiza.
The highest double chance value is 86.1% (1X — Malaga win or draw).
These values were computed from 454 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Malaga to win63.4%

Draw22.7%

Ibiza to win13.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Malaga win or draw86.1%

12 — any result other than a draw77.3%

X2 — draw or Ibiza win36.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Malaga lead at half-time52.8%

Level at half-time42.4%

Ibiza lead at half-time4.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Malaga ahead or level95.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Ibiza ahead47.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 454 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Malaga: at least 11Actual: 11
Ibiza: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Malaga: at least 5Actual: 6
Ibiza: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 34.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Malaga score1.58

Attack: Malaga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ibiza concede 46% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ibiza score0.60

Attack: Ibiza score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Malaga's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.3%1–011.8%1–111.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 454 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 41 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.