Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 42

Burgos–Lugo

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 May 2023 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, Burgos

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 15%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+2'LugoF. Moyano (assist: Ángel Baena)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Burgos		Lugo
13	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
417	Passes	342
334	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Burgos 1.32 · Lugo 0.62. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Burgos 13 · Lugo 11; on target 3 and 4.
Burgos kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Iván Caparrós→

5.50

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.9%: “Burgos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Burgos, 0.76 for Lugo.
The highest double chance value is 85.4% (1X — Burgos win or draw).
These values were computed from 452 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Burgos to win60.9%

Draw24.5%

Lugo to win14.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Burgos win or draw85.4%

12 — any result other than a draw75.5%

X2 — draw or Lugo win39.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Burgos lead at half-time31.9%

Level at half-time53.6%

Lugo lead at half-time14.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Burgos ahead or level85.4%

12 — not level at half-time46.4%

X2 — level or Lugo ahead68.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 452 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Burgos: at least 11Actual: 9
Lugo: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Burgos: at least 5Actual: 6
Lugo: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals46.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 34.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Burgos score1.32

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lugo concede 40% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lugo score0.62

Attack: Lugo score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.6%2–012.8%1–112.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 452 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 41 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.