Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 40

Levante–Ibiza

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 15 May 2023 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 14%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levante		Ibiza
20	Shots	3
4	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	2
4	Offsides	3
81%	Possession	19%
715	Passes	171
625	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levante 1.88 · Ibiza 0.40. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Levante 20 · Ibiza 3; on target 4 and 1.
Levante kept the ball more (81%).

Referee

Luis Milla→

6.30

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 80.9%: “Levante to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.53 for Levante, 0.57 for Ibiza.
The highest double chance value is 94.7% (1X — Levante win or draw).
These values were computed from 439 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levante to win80.9%

Draw13.8%

Ibiza to win5.3%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Levante win or draw94.7%

12 — any result other than a draw86.2%

X2 — draw or Ibiza win19.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (13.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Levante lead at half-time55.6%

Level at half-time38.9%

Ibiza lead at half-time5.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Levante ahead or level94.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Ibiza ahead44.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 439 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levante: at least 13Actual: 6
Ibiza: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Levante: at least 5Actual: 10
Ibiza: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 33.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levante score1.88

Attack: Levante score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ibiza concede 55% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ibiza score0.40

Attack: Ibiza score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levante concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.9%3–012.7%1–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 439 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 39 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.