Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 40

Granada CF–Lugo

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 May 2023 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes, Granada

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Granada CFA. Puertas (assist: M. Uzuni)
21'Granada CFB. Zaragoza (assist: Ignasi Miquel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Granada CF		Lugo
17	Shots	7
9	Shots on target	0
13	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	7
5	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
448	Passes	384
382	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Granada CF 1.74 · Lugo 0.41. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Granada CF 17 · Lugo 7; on target 9 and 0.

Referee

Oliver De La Fuente→

5.37

yellows per match

0.47

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.4%: “Granada CF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.36 for Granada CF, 0.66 for Lugo.
The highest double chance value is 92.7% (1X — Granada CF win or draw).
These values were computed from 431 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Granada CF to win76.4%

Draw16.3%

Lugo to win7.3%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Granada CF win or draw92.7%

12 — any result other than a draw83.7%

X2 — draw or Lugo win23.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.3%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Granada CF lead at half-time51.0%

Level at half-time43.6%

Lugo lead at half-time5.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Granada CF ahead or level94.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Lugo ahead49.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 431 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Granada CF: at least 11Actual: 16
Lugo: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Granada CF: at least 5Actual: 5
Lugo: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 34.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Granada CF score1.74

Attack: Granada CF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lugo concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lugo score0.41

Attack: Lugo score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Granada CF concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.1%3–011.1%1–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 431 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 39 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.