Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 38

Sporting Gijon–Lugo

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Monday, 1 May 2023 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal El Molinón, Gijón

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Sporting GijonPedro Díaz (assist: José Marsà)
32'Sporting GijonGuille Rosas (assist: Pedro Díaz)
53'Sporting GijonJ. Otero (assist: Bruno)
79'LugoXavi Torres (assist: Juanpe)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting Gijon		Lugo
14	Shots	4
6	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	6
0	Offsides	2
44%	Possession	56%
371	Passes	469
304	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting Gijon 1.55 · Lugo 0.51. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Sporting Gijon 14 · Lugo 4; on target 6 and 1.
Lugo kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Dámaso Arcediano→

4.32

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.3%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for Sporting Gijon, 0.62 for Lugo.
The highest double chance value is 89.1% (1X — Sporting Gijon win or draw).
These values were computed from 415 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting Gijon to win66.3%

Draw22.8%

Lugo to win10.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time49.8%

Level at half-time43.5%

Lugo lead at half-time6.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon ahead or level93.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Lugo ahead50.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 415 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting Gijon: at least 11Actual: 15
Lugo: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Sporting Gijon: at least 6Actual: 7
Lugo: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.55

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lugo concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lugo score0.51

Attack: Lugo score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.5%2–014.9%1–111.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.