Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 38

Racing Santander–Ibiza

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 28 April 2023 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Campos de Sport de El Sardinero, Santander

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Racing SantanderR. Baturina (assist: Iñigo Vicente)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Santander		Ibiza
10	Shots	4
5	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
462	Passes	380
368	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Santander 1.73 · Ibiza 0.69. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Racing Santander 10 · Ibiza 4; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

Oliver De La Fuente→

5.28

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.2%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for Racing Santander, 0.72 for Ibiza.
The highest double chance value is 85.9% (1X — Racing Santander win or draw).
These values were computed from 407 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Santander to win61.2%

Draw24.8%

Ibiza to win14.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Racing Santander win or draw85.9%

12 — any result other than a draw75.2%

X2 — draw or Ibiza win38.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Racing Santander lead at half-time52.9%

Level at half-time40.0%

Ibiza lead at half-time7.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Santander ahead or level92.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Ibiza ahead47.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 407 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Santander: at least 11Actual: 14
Ibiza: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

Racing Santander: at least 5Actual: 6
Ibiza: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals43.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,152 of 2,735 predictions were correct (42.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 34.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Santander score1.73

Attack: Racing Santander score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ibiza concede 48% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ibiza score0.69

Attack: Ibiza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.6%2–013.3%1–112.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 407 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 37 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.