Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 36

Tenerife–Ibiza

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 April 2023 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz, Tenerife

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'TenerifeIván Romero (assist: Nacho Martínez)
25'TenerifeWaldo Rubio
70'TenerifeEnric Gallego
84'TenerifeN. Šipčić (assist: Álex Corredera)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tenerife		Ibiza
17	Shots	4
8	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	2
5	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
492	Passes	400
412	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tenerife 1.63 · Ibiza 0.47. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Tenerife 17 · Ibiza 4; on target 8 and 1.
Tenerife kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Andrés Fuentes→

5.76

yellows per match

0.53

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.7%: “Tenerife to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for Tenerife, 0.53 for Ibiza.
The highest double chance value is 90.1% (1X — Tenerife win or draw).
These values were computed from 392 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tenerife to win66.7%

Draw23.4%

Ibiza to win9.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	5

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 88 of 227 predictions were correct (38.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Tenerife win or draw90.1%

12 — any result other than a draw76.6%

X2 — draw or Ibiza win33.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.4%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Tenerife lead at half-time44.9%

Level at half-time46.5%

Ibiza lead at half-time8.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Tenerife ahead or level91.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.5%

X2 — level or Ibiza ahead55.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 392 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tenerife: at least 13Actual: 10
Ibiza: at least 12Actual: 5

Corners

Tenerife: at least 5Actual: 4
Ibiza: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals39.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 501 of 1,358 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 33.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tenerife score1.63

Attack: Tenerife score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ibiza concede 42% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ibiza score0.47

Attack: Ibiza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tenerife concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–017.8%2–016.2%1–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 392 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 35 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.