Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 36

Burgos–Ponferradina

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 April 2023 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, Burgos

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'PonferradinaD. Ojeda (assist: Hugo Vallejo)
50'BurgosCurro Sánchez (penalty)
69'BurgosÁlex Bermejo
90'PonferradinaD. Goldar (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Burgos		Ponferradina
11	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
433	Passes	306
353	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Burgos 1.14 · Ponferradina 0.65. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Burgos 11 · Ponferradina 17; on target 5 and 3.
Burgos kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Raúl González→

3.82

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “Burgos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Burgos, 0.81 for Ponferradina.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (1X — Burgos win or draw).
These values were computed from 389 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Burgos to win45.5%

Draw31.4%

Ponferradina to win23.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Burgos lead at half-time29.0%

Level at half-time56.6%

Ponferradina lead at half-time14.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Burgos ahead or level85.6%

12 — not level at half-time43.4%

X2 — level or Ponferradina ahead71.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 389 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Burgos: at least 12Actual: 12
Ponferradina: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Burgos: at least 4Actual: 5
Ponferradina: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Burgos score1.14

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ponferradina concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ponferradina score0.65

Attack: Ponferradina score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.5%1–115.0%0–012.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.