Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 35

Ponferradina–Leganes

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 April 2023 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio El Toralín, Ponferrada

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 32%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90+2'LeganesSergio González (assist: Rubén Pardo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ponferradina		Leganes
13	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
64%	Possession	36%
487	Passes	285
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ponferradina 0.91 · Leganes 0.83. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Ponferradina 13 · Leganes 12; on target 4 and 6.
Ponferradina kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Iván Caparrós→

5.31

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.4%: “Ponferradina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Ponferradina, 0.99 for Leganes.
The highest double chance value is 67.9% (1X — Ponferradina win or draw).
These values were computed from 381 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ponferradina to win35.4%

Draw32.5%

Leganes to win32.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ponferradina lead at half-time23.1%

Level at half-time55.1%

Leganes lead at half-time21.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Ponferradina ahead or level78.3%

12 — not level at half-time44.9%

X2 — level or Leganes ahead76.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 381 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ponferradina: at least 13Actual: 7
Leganes: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Ponferradina: at least 4Actual: 10
Leganes: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ponferradina score0.91

Attack: Ponferradina score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Leganes's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leganes score0.83

Attack: Leganes score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ponferradina's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.7%1–013.0%0–012.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.