Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 35

Lugo–Tenerife

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 7 April 2023 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Anxo Carro, Lugo

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lugo		Tenerife
9	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	8
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
294	Passes	522
193	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lugo 0.66 · Tenerife 1.13. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Lugo 9 · Tenerife 16; on target 2 and 6.
Tenerife kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Aitor Gorostegui→

6.15

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.2%: “Tenerife to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.71 for Lugo, 1.36 for Tenerife.
The highest double chance value is 81.8% (X2 — draw or Tenerife win).
These values were computed from 374 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lugo to win18.2%

Draw29.5%

Tenerife to win52.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lugo win or draw47.8%

12 — any result other than a draw70.5%

X2 — draw or Tenerife win81.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Lugo lead at half-time21.6%

Level at half-time56.8%

Tenerife lead at half-time21.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Lugo ahead or level78.4%

12 — not level at half-time43.2%

X2 — level or Tenerife ahead78.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 374 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lugo: at least 12Actual: 12
Tenerife: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Lugo: at least 3Actual: 6
Tenerife: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals34.3%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 158 of 459 predictions were correct (34.4%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 33.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lugo score0.66

Attack: Lugo score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tenerife concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tenerife score1.13

Attack: Tenerife score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lugo concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–116.7%1–114.0%0–012.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 374 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 34 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.