Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 32

FC Andorra–Ibiza

2–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 March 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadi Nacional, Andorra la Vella

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'IbizaCoke (assist: Iván Morante)
26'IbizaEkain Zenitagoia (penalty)
75'FC AndorraS. Bakis (assist: M. Bundu)
85'FC AndorraC. Albanis (assist: Adrià Vilanova)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Andorra		Ibiza
23	Shots	7
8	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
10	Corners	3
3	Offsides	2
85%	Possession	15%
802	Passes	147
749	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Andorra 1.55 · Ibiza 0.56. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots FC Andorra 23 · Ibiza 7; on target 8 and 3.
FC Andorra kept the ball more (85%).

Referee

Aitor Gorostegui→

5.73

yellows per match

0.45

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.3%: “FC Andorra to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for FC Andorra, 0.80 for Ibiza.
The highest double chance value is 82.8% (1X — FC Andorra win or draw).
These values were computed from 342 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Andorra to win56.3%

Draw26.5%

Ibiza to win17.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

FC Andorra lead at half-time42.0%

Level at half-time48.0%

Ibiza lead at half-time10.0%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Andorra ahead or level90.0%

12 — not level at half-time52.0%

X2 — level or Ibiza ahead58.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 342 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Andorra: at least 11Actual: 11
Ibiza: at least 13Actual: 6

Corners

FC Andorra: at least 5Actual: 10
Ibiza: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Andorra score1.55

Attack: FC Andorra score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ibiza concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ibiza score0.56

Attack: Ibiza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Andorra's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.0%1–113.3%2–011.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.